Technology Pundits: Eight Predictions for '09 Dec 16, 2008 – By Tim Bajarin
The current economic crisis makes forecasting much more difficult this year
than in the past, yet December still seems like a good time to ponder the
year ahead. To that end, I've compiled a list of seven tech
predictions—things I believe will happen over the next 12 months, plus
one perhaps outrageous bonus prediction that could happen…if the stars
align just right next year.
1. Windows 7 will bring tech out of the doldrums. Sales of PCs and other tech
will be down in the first half of 2009, but when Microsoft delivers Windows 7
by Q3 (as many expect), it could catalyze the tech economy. This new OS will
drive businesses and consumers to new PC and notebook purchases by Q4. Think
it's just wishful thinking? In the past when Microsoft delivered a new
operating system for mass consumption, sales of PCs and notebooks accelerated
dramatically for a period of 24 months. This didn't happen with Vista, but it
has happened with many other major releases. Let's hope that history repeats
itself.
I'm not alone in this prediction, either; I've talked to several IT directors
who confirm this view. Many enterprises balked at buying Vista but are
hearing enough good things about Windows 7 to be open to upgrading once it
comes out. The big issue will be 2009 budgets, and at the moment, a lot of IT
budgets are frozen. Still, IT managers have told me that many of their
machines are so old that they have to do some hardware upgrades just to keep
their shops competitive.
2. The tech industry will be the first to recover. While the real estate and
auto markets will be very slow to come back, the tech industry will recover
fastest and be moving forward again by Q3. As stated above, Windows 7 could
jump-start things, but technology has become so important to our business and
personal lives that the employed will buy new notebooks, music players, and
TVs if the economy merely stabilizes sometime in 2009.
3. The unemployed will start small businesses to survive—and will need
PCs to make a living. We saw this happen during the last recession and also
when some of the big companies downsized. Many of those laid off are
professionals who could start specialty consulting services as well as new
businesses of various types just to survive. PC technology and communications
will most likely be at the heart of their new ventures.
4. Netbook sales will double in 2009. People want cheaper laptops, ones that
provide more mobility. Manufacturers should sell about 18 million netbooks
this year, and at least another 36 to 38 million worldwide in 2009. These
products have driven down the average selling prices of traditional laptops;
now full-powered laptops are in the same price range as netbooks.
Consequently, users will be faced with a difficult choice when purchasing a
notebook in 2009: extreme mobility versus full-powered functionality. But the
biggest impact from netbooks will be at the vendor level. These lower-priced
models have small margins, and that will impact their profitability in 2009.
The drop in revenues will force the major vendors to move faster to create
their own ecosystems—hardware, software, and services tied to these
netbooks through some type of cloud solution—and use this as a way to
develop new revenue streams.
5. Smartphones will gain market share. By 2012, 75 percent of all phones sold
in the US will be smartphones. Earlier this year sales of cell phones and
smartphones grew, but under the current economic climate, sales for the
latter part of the year seem stalled. Still, about 1.2 billion cell phones
will have been sold worldwide in 2008. They're simply indispensible tools,
and in the next 12 months, smartphones such as Apple's iPhone and the RIM
BlackBerry will gain a stronger foothold in the U.S. and Europe. By 2015,
smartphones will represent as much as 65 percent of all cell phones sold
globally.
6. Android will expand its reach. When we talk about Android today, we mostly
discuss its role inside a "Google phone" such as the T-Mobile G1.
Indeed, in the near term, Android's focus will continue to be smartphones.
But by next holiday season we should see it in set-top boxes, digital
televisions, and Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs)—and perhaps even
desktop terminals. In fact, Android could emerge as the biggest threat to
Linux's desire to make the mainstream, and within the next three years
Android could become a major OS in its own right.
For this to happen, Google will need to take a Microsoft-like approach to
shepherding Android; the SDK needs to be much more solid, and the company
needs to drive open-source components in a way that gives Android a
consistent UI across all types of devices. And the Mountain View crew needs
to take a page from Apple's playbook and create an easy way for people to get
Android apps that are tested, approved, and trusted. If that happens, Android
could become a most interesting broad-market OS—and could perhaps take
on Windows in the future.
7. Apple market share in PCs and smartphones will grow. Even in a downturn,
Apple will grow its market share by at least 2 points in 2009. The
ease-of-use message and the complete ecosystem are attracting more new
customers to Apple stores, and the company will gain new Mac users at the
expense of Windows vendors. If Apple delivers a low-cost laptop sometime in
2009, as some rumors have it, its market share could climb even more than 2
points in the coming year. Also, Apple will continue to innovate around the
iPhone and even add some models at lower prices to attract new customers
worldwide. Apple knows that it is gaining ground on competitors and will use
the competition's struggles in the coming year to its own advantage.
And for my outrageous prediction:
8. Microsoft makes a play to purchase RIM. If the Apple iPhone makes any
serious inroads into the enterprise, Microsoft will make a bid for RIM and
use it to enhance and solidify the company's enterprise smartphone position.
Sure, new versions of Windows Mobile will be much richer in the future, but
BlackBerry customers are almost as fanatical as Apple users. Microsoft would
love to displace BlackBerry phones with Windows Mobile smartphones, and how
better to get RIM's customers than by buying the company? Microsoft could
then blend RIM into a service, which is where the long-term money will be
someday.
Technology Pundits: Eight Predictions for '09
