Technology Pundits: The End of CES: Jobs is Right and Change is Needed Jan 14, 2009 – By Rob Enderle
I'm not sure why CES or MacWorld comes early in January but I agree with Apple and Steve Jobs doing a show on anything close to consumer tech right after the Christmas Holidays is simply brain dead stupid.
Currently technology is cycling two, or sometimes even three, times a year with much of the value in the late 3rd and 4th quarter. That means that much of the value for the show, which is supposed to primarily be a forum where OEMs and retailers can do deals, is lost because the OEMs simply aren't ready to talk about products that may only be in the conceptual stage in the first quarter.
The other problem is that the OEMs are increasingly shutting down over the December holidays to conserve costs and this means they have to prepare in early December, typically a time when folks aren't the most productive since it falls between holidays, and there is a lot of pressure to close the financial books.
In the end, if CES is to survive and remain relevant, it needs to adjust to the times and shift to a later period so that both buyers and sellers get greater value and can more easily justify the expense.
Travel Budget and Press Coverage
Another value of CES is the press coverage the vendors get from their announcements. However with internet press running on razor thing budgets and traditional press in the red; travel has become a massive impediment to getting the coverage these vendors think they are partially paying for. In addition, even if that weren't the case, announcements are happening in hotels and venues that are geographically dispersed creating a Russian Roulette kind of event sequence where the reporters are trying to be too many places at once and generally get caught between venues when the announcements hit.
Finding a way to both provide the forum for these announcements and assure the reporters get the information timely will play a major role in whether CES continues or follows Comdex into the history books.
Wrapping Up
CES, as it is, is going to die. It comes too early and carries too much cost for the benefit it is providing and, unless that is fixed, this show will follow Comdex into the history books. Maybe not next year, but before 2020 and it likely will go into sharp decline before that. If CES is to survive and flourish it needs to change with the times and that means both timing and the use of the technology that the show sells needs to be considered more aggressively to ensure CES becomes as much the show of tomorrow as it is now one of the last remnants of the 90s.
